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China's steel market continues to heat up, prices have risen significantly

2 年多來,我國鋼材商場持續升溫,價格行情呈現較大起伏上漲。 For more than two years, the steel shopping malls in China have continued to heat up, and prices have risen sharply. Looking forward to the steel market outlook, according to the long-term and short-term positive support, consumer demand continues to be strong, and excess capacity is gradually cleared to help balance the long-term supply and demand relationship, which constitutes a new rising cycle for the steel market. On the other hand, following the "lower price level" to a reasonable price, the "replenishment" phase is generally completed, and due to many factors, the next phase of steel shopping malls will enter the "slow cow" format. Hong Kong Recycling Electronics


The so-called "slow bull" format: First, the steel market continues to heat up, and the overall price level continues to rise. The average price throughout the year is higher than the previous year, rather than falling, or it will be a bull market but a bear market. Second, the price increase is gentle, rather than skyrocketing. 3% 左右。 For example, the annual price increase is about 3% . The "slow cow" market is an important shape in China's steel shopping malls entering a new rising cycle, and perhaps a new shape.


The "slow bull format" is of course the first bull market, which is mainly supported by some long-term elements. 過剩產能逐漸出清助力供求關系平衡,接連數年出資劇減削弱未來供給才能等。 For example, the stabilization of the domestic and foreign economic recovery affects the strong consumption increase, the new technology revolution has significantly improved the demand intensity, eliminated the huge space-time potential of different regional demand additions, the excess capacity has been gradually cleared, and the supply-demand relationship has been gradually balanced. The drastic reduction in capital over the years has weakened future supply Wait. The most important thing is that the new technology revolution has significantly improved the strength of steel demand and the gradual removal of excess capacity, thereby promoting the improvement of long-term supply and demand relations, and the long-term foundation of the steady rise in steel prices.


In recent decades, new technological revolutions have continuously emerged. Today, steel structure construction has gradually replaced brick and wood structure construction, high-speed transportation has replaced ordinary railways and rural dirt roads, and urban underground trajectory traffic has been constructed, all of which have led to a sudden increase in steel demand intensity. . Especially in the southwest region, high-speed passages are constructed between high mountains and ridges, all of which are elevated and connected to high bridges. The steel required for the construction of 100 kilometers will be dozens of times, or even hundreds, of the Panshan gravel roads that were built in the past. Times. In addition, the replacement of robots by robots is actually the process of replacing "flesh" with "metal body".


20% 以上, 2017 1-7 月全國工業機器人產量 7.1 萬臺,同比添加 57% ,現在我國現已占有全球工業機器人商場份額 1/3 ,成為全球最大機器人應用商場。 According to relevant materials, the planned growth rate of China ’s robot industry has remained above 20% in the past five years . From January to July 2017 , the national industrial robot output was 71,000 units, an increase of 57% year-on-year . China now has a share of the global industrial robot market 3 , become the world's largest robot application mall. GDP 的金屬消費強度。 From the robot production line that produces general products to the robot production line that produces robots, the cumulative amount of steel and other metals consumed per unit of production in the manufacturing industry will also be dozens of times the amount of metal consumed by traditional manual operations. Hundreds of times, then significantly improved the intensity of metal consumption per unit of GDP . This informs us that the annual steel consumption peak that China will reach in the future will be significantly higher than the level that western developed countries once had. ( 含直接出口 ) 將超越 10 億噸,乃至到達 12 億噸,而不是像美國、日本等國家,粗鋼產量到達 1 2 億噸後就走上了下坡路。 According to the preliminary budget, the annual peak demand for crude steel in China ( including direct exports ) will exceed 1 billion tons, and even reach 1.2 billion tons, instead of countries such as the United States and Japan, crude steel output will go downhill after reaching 120 million tons.


And because the new technological revolution, for example, is in the ascendant, this has led to the continuous progress of various capital constructions, which will not be completed in a short period of time. 2020 年全國城市軌跡交通線路有望到達 6000 公裏,規劃建造線路路程將超越 10000 公裏,比較 2015 年底全國 28 個城市所擁有軌跡交通線路 3730 公裏,別離添加 6 成多和近 3 倍。 According to the plan, by 2020 , the national urban trajectory transportation routes are expected to reach 6000 kilometers, and the planned construction route distance will exceed 10,000 kilometers. Compared with the 3,730 kilometers of trajectory transportation routes owned by 28 cities nationwide at the end of 2015 , it is more than 60 % and nearly 3 times. 2025 年,全國將建成“八縱八橫”高速鐵路網,高速鐵路總路程將到達 4.5 萬公裏,也比 2016 年添加壹倍。 By 2025 , the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed railway network will be built across the country, and the total distance of the high-speed railway will reach 45,000 kilometers, which is double the number in 2016 . 4000 公裏的“飛翔列車”。 The relevant part is now developing a "flying train" that reaches 4,000 kilometers per hour . In addition, hundreds of millions of farmers across the country entered the city, and the "shed reform" plan was huge and long-term. All of this will inevitably lead to huge demand and promote the bull market cycle of steel.


In the last round of bull market of steel and black series products, high profits attracted a lot of investment, which affected the rapid expansion of production capacity. For example, the huge expansion of global iron ore production capacity, the rapid addition of China's coal, coke and steel training ability, etc., present a severe overcapacity, which has become an important factor for steel and black series products to enter the "bear market." In order to complete the balance of production and demand, in recent years, China ’s resolution plans have begun to gradually clear out excess steel production capacity, including the complete revocation of “strip steel”, etc., and now great results have been achieved. 2 億多噸。 With a rough budget, so far the country's practical steel production capacity should be more than 200 million tons.


In addition, a large number of backward enterprises in coal, iron ore and coke have been closed across the country. Affected by this, the supply-demand relationship between steel and black series products across the country has improved significantly, and some products have even become tighter in supply, which has pushed the bottom of prices back up. ; 壹起“鐵腕”環保將接力去產能,極大按捺落後產能開釋。 It is estimated that in the next stage, the supervisory part will stabilize the effect of de-capacity and adopt measures to prevent the resumption of closed production capacity ; once the “Iron Fist” environmental protection will relay the de-capacity, and release the production capacity according to the backward production capacity. Under the influence of this large policy environment, China ’s steel and black series production capacity, especially the gradual removal of backward production capacity, will be maintained for a long time, helping to complete a long-term balance between supply and demand, and further consolidating steel and black series. The new cycle of "bull market" for product malls is at the root.


With this, the shopping mall mechanism is also exerting a balancing effect. The first manifestation is that the steel and black series products malls have been stuck in the "midwinter" for several years, the sales prices have spread across the "waist cuts", professional profits have shrunk sharply, and some have also suffered large losses. Affected by this, domestic and foreign related professional investment has dropped significantly. 2016 年全球鐵礦石勘探預算為 68500 萬美元,比 2015 年下降 40% ,比 2012 年高峰期時的近 40 億美元下降了 83% ,這是接連第四年下降。 According to UNCTAD materials, the global iron ore exploration budget in 2016 was US $ 685 million, a 40% decrease from 2015 and an 83% decrease from the nearly US $ 4 billion at the peak in 2012 , which is the fourth consecutive year of decline. . Domestic coal, iron ore and iron and steel training occupation investment also decreased year on year.


2015 年全國采礦業固定資產出資比上年下降 8.8% 2016 年下降 20.4% 2017 年前 7 月再降 6.1%;2014 年全國煤炭挖掘和洗選業固定資產出資比上年下降 9.5% 2015 年下降 14.4% 2016 年下降 24.2% 2017 年前 7 個月盡管小幅添加 1.6% ,但出資依然處於較低水平 ;2014 年全國黑色金屬鍛煉和壓延加工業固定資產出資比上年下降 5.9% 2015 年下降 10.9% 2016 年下降 2.2% 2017 年前 7 個月再降 11.8% According to statistics, in 2015 the nation ’s mining industry ’s fixed asset investment decreased by 8.8% over the previous year , in 2016 it fell by 20.4% , and in July 2017 it fell by 6.1% again ; in 2014 , the national coal mining and washing industry ’s fixed asset investment decreased from the previous year 9.5% , a decrease of 14.4 % in 2015 , and a decrease of 24.2% in 2016. Although the first seven months of 2017 increased slightly by 1.6% , the investment was still at a low level ; in 2014 , the national ferrous metal training and rolling processing industry fixed assets investment ratio The annual decline was 5.9% , in 2015 it was 10.9% , in 2016 it was 2.2% , and in the first 7 months of 2017 it was down 11.8% . Mining, coal, steel, and other occupational contributions across the country have shrunk sharply over the years, and will definitely be based on future production capacity, which will help balance supply and demand in the longer term.


On the other hand, following the two-year rise and fall in the prices of steel and black series products, the stage of "compensating for the rise" of excessively low prices to a reasonable price has also been substantially completed, and its price growth and increase will slow down in the future. It is more gentle, so it enters the "slow bull stage" in the bull market cycle. Corresponding to this, the spot shopping malls, futures shopping malls and stock shopping malls of related products will also enter the "slow bull" situation simultaneously. This is the second characteristic of the fundamental shape of the mall we will face in the future.


In the future, the steel and black series products malls have entered the "slow cow" stage, and the price increase is relatively gentle.


首先是由於價格通過較大起伏補漲,其比照基數有了很大進步。 1 First of all, because the price has been compensated by large fluctuations, it has greatly improved by comparison with the base. 9 月上海螺紋鋼期貨噸價到達 4200 元,也只比方今 4000 / 噸價位上漲 5% ,遠低於如今鋼材價格同比 5 成以上的漲幅水平。 In this case, even if the market price increases further in the future, for example , the Shanghai rebar futures ton price will reach 4,200 yuan in September next year , it will only increase by 5% from the current price of 4,000 yuan / ton , which is far lower than the current year-on-year steel price. 50 % increase level. 其次是全球經濟復蘇的脆弱性,交易保護主義昂首,針對我國出口的交易摩擦加重 ; 國內房地產商場前景不明朗,地方政府和企業債務負擔沈重,“去杠桿”添加部分企業壓力,由此發生需求的不安穩性。 2 Followed by the fragility of the global economic recovery, transaction protectionism stands out, and transaction friction against China ’s exports has increased ; the prospects of domestic real estate shopping malls are unclear, local government and corporate debt burdens are heavy, and “de-leveraging” has added some corporate pressure, which has occurred Unstableness of demand. 再次是今年內美聯儲縮表與持續加息,發生全球資金分配與流動變數。 3 Once again, this year the US Federal Reserve has scaled back and continued to raise interest rates, and global capital distribution and flow variables have occurred. There is also an oversupply of black series products such as global iron ore, steel, etc., and the country's backward production capacity is now "revived." 最終是充滿商場的“恐高”心思,憂慮價格呈現“高臺跳水”,價格漲幅越高,這種恐高空氣越是濃烈。 4 In the end, it is full of malls ’fear of heights, worrying that prices are“ high diving ”. The higher the price increase, the stronger the fear of heights. Affected by this, traders move in and out quickly, and consumers keep less or may not keep inventory, resulting in shrinking demand for circulation and inventory.


All of these will constitute the constraints of the bull market of China's steel and black series products.


V 型”回轉,並不會由於鋼材商場的“慢牛”格式而完全消失。 Although steel shopping malls have entered the "slow cow" stage, the average price increase has been gentle, but the above-mentioned shopping malls are fundamentally coexisting with negative factors. The two hostile forces of the shopping malls continue to fiercely compete, and various hotspot themes continue, so the steel shopping malls still Deducing the "short cycle" market, the price of the "roller coaster" may be " V -shaped" turning, and will not completely disappear due to the "slow cow" format of the steel mall.


In the future, the "slow cow" format of the steel mall will also be followed by a huge shock. This is also a need to be vigilant. This requires mall participants to master the buying rhythm of the mall, not to forget the "fear of heights", and to continue fast in and out.


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