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Steel market supply and demand have not changed much, and still maintain a tight balance
月上旬，國內鋼材商場呈現高位轟動運轉，商場復雜多變，價格漲跌變化頻頻。 In early September , domestic steel shopping malls showed a high level of sensational operation. The shopping malls were complex and changeable, and their prices were changing frequently. 2017 年 9 月上旬末，全國 20mm 三級螺紋鋼均價 4285 元 / 噸，今年以來累計上漲 29.3% ， 4.75mm 熱卷均價 4326 元 / 噸，累計上漲 14.3% 。 By the end of early September 2017 , the national average price of 20mm three-level rebar was 4,285 yuan / ton, which has risen by 29.3% this year , and the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil has been 4,326 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 14.3% . Hong Kong Recycling Electronics
On the one hand, the prices of upstream industrial products such as steel products have risen significantly, which has led to the resistance of middle and low-level industrial enterprises and a lower enthusiasm for buying. On the other hand, environmental and security sounds from all over the place are frequently heard, coupled with speculative funding to fuel up the fire, increasing the risk of uncertainty in the mall. Long and short shopping malls are intertwined with audio. This article attempts to clarify what are the bullish and bearish factors of the shopping malls, in order to support the forecast of later price trends.
In recent years, the government has promoted the same strategy of “de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and shortcomings”. It has also paid attention to green development. Environmental protection supervision has become normal. Coking and other work will be carried out in peak production. Yitong, in preparation for the 19th CPC National Congress, inspections of safe production have also been opened throughout the country.
9 月份全國粗鋼日均產量在 240 萬噸左右，終究三個月日產量將逐步回落。 Although the steel industry continued to make high profits at that time, subject to environmental protection and security inspections, and the slow progress in the utilization of electric arc furnace capacity, it is estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in China was about 2.4 million tons in September . After all, the daily output will gradually decline in three months. .
9 月中旬螺紋鋼出廠價維穩， 20mm 三級螺紋鋼出廠價分別為 4250 元 / 噸和 4150 元 / 噸，仍較杭州、北京商場高 100 元 / 噸以上。 The rebar ex-factory prices of Shagang and Hebei Iron and Steel Group remained stable in mid- September . The ex-factory prices of 20mm three-level rebar were 4,250 yuan / ton and 4,150 yuan / ton, respectively, which were still more than 100 yuan / ton higher than those in Hangzhou and Beijing .
10 月熱軋出廠價上調 200 ，其間武鋼 3.0mm 熱卷出廠價 4710 元 / 噸，較武漢商場高 680 元 / 噸以上，鋼廠與商場價差明顯擴展。 The hot-rolled ex-factory price of Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel increased by 200 in October . Meanwhile , the ex-factory price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coil of WISCO was 4,710 yuan / ton, which was more than 680 yuan / ton compared with Wuhan shopping mall . Traders' cost of taking goods has gradually increased, and continued profit sharing will present a loss.
The most important factor for the stable and rising ex-factory price of steel mills is that the in-plant inventory is still at a low level during the year. ( 到 9 月 8 日 ) ，樣本鋼廠鋼材庫存量 465.1 萬噸，周環比下降 2.1% ，處於年內次低水平，僅略高於上月同期的 464.7 萬噸。 According to tracking, last week ( until September 8 ) , the steel stocks of the sample steel mills were 4.651 million tons, a week- on-month decrease of 2.1% , the second lowest level in the year, only slightly higher than the 4.647 million tons in the same period last month .
10 月份安全大檢查的挨近，特別山西呈現煤礦事端，各大煤礦履行限產任務，加上運送偏嚴重、進口煤受限等原因，近期焦煤價格明顯拉漲，也促進焦企提漲焦炭價格。 With the approaching of the safety inspection in October , especially in Shanxi, coal mines are experiencing problems. Major coal mines have fulfilled the task of limiting production. In addition, due to severe transportation and restricted imported coal, the price of coking coal has increased significantly recently, which has also promoted the rise of coking enterprises. Coke price.
9 月 12 日呂梁主焦煤必定價格指數 1500 元 / 噸，當月累計上漲 11.1%; 同期，焦炭必定價格指數 2138 元 / 噸，當月累計上漲 5.1%; 同期，普鋼必定價格指數 4369.55 元 / 噸，當月累計上漲 2.3% 。 According to monitoring, by September 12 , the price index of Luliang's main coking coal must be 1,500 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 11.1% that month ; the price of coke must be 2138 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 5.1% during the same month ; Yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 2.3% for the month .
Due to the impact of environmental protection and security inspections, the number of blast furnaces overhauled by steel mills in recent years has restrained the purchase of iron ore, and the performance of ore prices has been sluggish. However, due to the strong “dual-coke” price, the production cost of steel mills still rose slightly.
、 8 月份 PPI 環比持續拉漲，首要是鋼材、有色金屬等上遊工業品價格漲勢明顯，必定揉捏中下賤工業企業獲利。 In July and August , the PPI continued to increase month-on-month . The main reason was that the prices of upstream industrial products such as steel and non-ferrous metals rose significantly. 9 月以來鋼材成交量較 7 、 8 月份不堅定不大，呈現旺季不旺格局。 In the same way, environmental protection and security inspections also affect the production of low-grade steel . Since September , the steel transaction volume has been less firm than in July and August , showing a busy season.
In summary, the supply and demand of steel shopping malls have not changed much, and a tight balance pattern has been maintained. Due to rising costs and low inventory support, steel mills are more willing to keep prices, and cheaper to buy on demand, the transaction volume is difficult to continue to force. At that time, the prices of steel shopping malls did not meet the conditions of sharp rises and falls, and before the National Day holiday, they showed a high level of sensation.