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Suppressing supply and reducing demand, steel price dilemma

Publisher: Hong Kong Waste Recycling Company Release time: 2017-09-19 Read: 1468 times

18 日,國內鋼材商場弱勢下行。 On September 18 , the domestic steel shopping malls were weak. 19 個城市螺紋鋼價格跌落 10-80 / ; 杭州、福州、天津、重慶等 14 個城市熱卷價格跌落 10-50 / ; 上海、長沙、天津、重慶等 10 個城市中厚板價格跌落 10-40 / 噸。 In the meantime, rebar prices in 19 cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Chongqing dropped by 10-80 yuan / ton ; HRC prices in 14 cities including Hangzhou, Fuzhou, Tianjin, and Chongqing dropped by 10-50 yuan / ton ; Shanghai, Changsha, Plate prices in 10 cities including Tianjin and Chongqing fell by 10-40 yuan / ton.


日,唐山普方坯含稅出廠價上漲 20 3710 / 噸。 On the 18th , the ex-factory price of Tangshan ordinary billet including tax rose by 20 to 3710 yuan / ton. 30 ,幹流廠家報 4000; 唐山型鋼工角持穩,槽鋼漲 20 ,現幹流報價工字 4190-4200 ,槽鋼 4190-4200 ,角鋼 4250; 螺紋三大 4120-4200 ,三小 4160-4230 On the same day, Tangshan products increased steadily : Tangshan small narrow band rose by 30% , and mainstream manufacturers reported 4000; Tangshan section steel angle remained stable, channel steel rose by 20% , and current mainstream quotes are I1904200 , channel steel 4190-4200 , and angle steel 4250 ; Three major threads 4120-4200 , three minor 4160-4230 .


日,黑色系期貨弱勢震動,期螺在 3750-3800 區間震動,商場心態糾結。 On the 18th , the black futures shook in a weak position. The future snail shook in the 3750-3800 range, and the mall mentality was tangled. On the one hand, market transactions are still tepid, and intermediary stocks continue to rise, and they are forced to reduce prices and ship. On the other hand, the ex-factory prices of steel mills remain high, and traders are now losing money on shipments, and the possibility of a big drop is not high. 20 3710 / 噸,底部呈現支撐。 Today, the ex-factory price of Tangshan Pu billet including tax rebounded by 20 to 3710 yuan / ton, showing support at the bottom.


日,國內僅 2 家修建鋼材出產企業下調出廠價 20-30 / 噸。 On the 18th , only two domestic steel production companies reduced their ex-factory prices by 20-30 yuan / ton. Although last week's steel mill inventory increased slightly from the previous month and remained at a low level for the year, the prices of main stream mills remained firm.


9 18 日,全國 25 個商場螺紋 HRB400(20mm) 均價為 4218 噸,較上壹交易日價格跌落 28 / 噸。 Construction of steel: On September 18 , the average price of thread HRB400 (20mm) in 25 shopping malls across the country was 4,218 tons, which was 28 yuan / ton lower than the price on the previous trading day . Today's slab rebounds, and the low-price transaction has improved. It is estimated that the construction of steel in China will shake in a narrow range tomorrow, and the overall decline will narrow.


9 18 日,全國 24 個熱軋 4.75mm 商場均價 4257 噸,較上壹交易日價格跌落 16 / 噸。 Hot-rolled coil: On September 18 , the average price of 24 hot-rolled 4.75mm malls nationwide was 4,257 tons, which was 16 yuan / ton lower than the price on the previous trading day . At present, the market demand is generally weak, but the inventory of HRC malls is relatively low. With the support of capital, businesses are not willing to sell too low. It is estimated that the prices of hot-rolled malls will fluctuate tomorrow.


9 18 日,全國 24 個首要商場 20mm 普中板平均價格為 4172 噸,較上壹交易日價格跌落 8 / 噸。 Medium and heavy plate: On September 18 , the average price of 20mm ordinary medium plate in 24 major shopping malls nationwide was 4,172 tons, which was 8 yuan / ton lower than the price on the previous trading day . Traders' mentality reflects lack of security. Operation is mainly based on loose shipments. It is estimated that tomorrow's domestic plate market prices may be weak.


9 18 日,全國 1.0mm 冷軋平均價為 4768 噸,較上壹交易日價格跌落 22 / 噸。 Cold-rolled coil: On September 18 , the national average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled was 4,768 tons, which was 22 yuan / ton lower than the price on the previous trading day . The mall looks dense with air, and merchants mostly reflect more inquiries and less transactions. At that time, the inventory of the merchants remained tightly balanced, and it is estimated that the weak and shaking operations will be performed tomorrow.


9 18 ,京唐港 61.5% 澳洲粉礦報 550 / 噸,較上壹交易日價格相等。 Imported ore: On September 18th , 61.5% of Australian powder ore at Jingtang Port was reported at 550 yuan / ton, which was equal to the price of the previous trading day. Due to the severe measures to stop production and limit production recently, the steel mill has a weak acquisition attitude, looks around in many places, consumes mainly inventories, and weakly shakes the operation of mineral prices.


18 日國內焦炭現貨商場平穩運轉,成交傑出,焦企心態稍有回暖。 Coke: On the 18th , domestic coke spot shopping malls ran smoothly, with outstanding transactions, and the coke mentality slightly recovered. 2050-2080 / ; 河北邯鄲區域二級冶金焦出廠含稅 2210 / ; 邢臺準壹級出廠報 2270 / ; 華東區域焦炭商場現二級幹流報價 2250-2300 / 噸,均為出廠含稅價。 The current secondary mainstream price of coke malls in Shanxi region is 2050-2080 yuan / ton ; the secondary metallurgical coke in Handan region of Hebei province includes tax of 2210 yuan / ton ; the first -class factory of Xingtai Zhungang reports 2270 yuan / ton ; the second-class coke market in east China is now secondary The main stream price is 2250-2300 yuan / ton, which is the factory price including tax. Short-term domestic coke stores are likely to run smoothly.


18 日廢鋼商場暫穩,成交壹般。 Scrap steel: On the 18th , the scrap steel mall was temporarily stable and the transaction was just as good. 1880-1920 / ; 山東區域重廢價格在 1810-1880 / 噸。 At present, the price of heavy waste in Jiangsu region is maintained at 1880-1920 yuan / ton ; the price of heavy waste in Shandong region is 1810-1880 yuan / ton. 1790-1830 / 噸。 The transaction price of heavy waste in Fujian shopping mall including tax was 1790-1830 yuan / ton. 1660-1710 / 噸。 The price of heavy waste in Hubei with tax is 1660-1710 yuan / ton. 1700-1800 / 噸。 The heavy waste in Shanxi area includes tax of 1700-1800 yuan / ton. 2100-2230 / 噸。 The price of heavy waste in Hebei including tax is RMB 2100-2230 / ton. The above are all factory prices including tax.


90% 左右, 9 月份鋼鐵日產量相等或略高於 8 月份。 Supply side: According to the survey data of our network, the capacity utilization rate of both the blast furnace plant and the rolling mill is slightly fluctuating. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity remains at about 90% . The daily steel output in September was equal to or slightly higher than that in August . 10 月份,因秋冬季環保限產發動,鋼鐵日產量將逐步下降。 Coming into October , due to the start of environmental protection in autumn and winter, the daily output of steel will gradually decline.


9 18 日起,邯鄲全市鋼鐵企業球團豎爐、燒結機悉數停產,壹切修建施工土石方和拆遷工地壹概中止作業。 Beijing and Handan have first issued “stop orders”: From September 18th , the shaft furnaces and sintering machines of iron and steel enterprises in Handan City were all shut down, and all construction work, earthwork, and demolition sites were suspended. 14 日,國務院安委會第三十監察組進駐河北省,對河北省安全出產大檢查作業展開綜合監察。 On September 14 , the 30th Supervision Group of the Security Council of the State Council entered Hebei Province to carry out comprehensive supervision of the Hebei Province's major inspection of safe production. Tangshan City, Tianjin City, and other professional unlicensed sewage treatment activities such as steel gathering supervision and law enforcement, but also affect the steel plant production plan.


9 月上半月鋼材現貨商場成交量小幅走弱,呈現旺季不旺格式。 Demand side: environmental protection is similar to the construction of low-level construction sites, coupled with end-user conflicting thoughts on high prices. In the first half of September , the volume of steel spot shopping malls weakened slightly, showing a busy season.


月份部分經濟指標呈現回落,首要跟高溫多雨氣候和環保監察有關。 In August , some economic indicators showed a decline, mainly related to the high temperature and rainy climate and environmental monitoring. 2017 1-8 月份,基建出資同比增加 19.8% ,增速較 1-7 月份回落 1.1 個百分點,極點氣候影響野外施工進度。 For example: In the first eight months of 2017 , infrastructure investment increased by 19.8% year-on-year , a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the first seven months, and extreme weather affected the progress of field construction.


70 個大中城市新建商品住宅環比上漲的 46 個,相等的 6 個,跌落的 18 個。 In August , the number of newly-built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose by 46 from the previous month, 6 equivalent , and 18 dropped . 15 個壹、二線城市房價環比下降或相等,三線城市房價漲幅回落。 In the meantime, house prices in 15 first-tier and second-tier cities fell or were equal to the previous month, while house prices in third-tier cities fell. The effect of the regulation of the property market appeared, and the growth rate of real estate investment in the fourth quarter still had room to fall.


2017 1-8 月份制造業增加值同比增加 7.2% ,較上年同期高 0.3 個百分點。 However, the growth of the manufacturing industry is stable. The value added of the manufacturing industry in January-August 2017 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year . In the meantime, the output of manufacturing industries such as special equipment, general equipment, and cars all increased steadily.


Summary: Overall, the construction industry's output has cooled down, the manufacturing industry's production has been stable, and the demand for construction steel has been relatively weak. 7 8 月份冷季需求不淡,必定程度上由鋼價大漲影響,並提前透支了部分需求。 At the same time, the demand for the cold season in July and August is not weak, it must be affected to a certain extent by the surge in steel prices, and some of the demand is overdrawn in advance. 5 周攀升至 1010.5 萬噸,也標明中間商去庫存壓力較大。 Last week, the inventory of steel shopping malls continued to climb to 10.105 million tons for five weeks , which also indicated that the pressure of destocking by middlemen was greater. 469.5 萬噸,僅比年內最低位高 4.8 萬噸,也標明鋼廠挺價底氣尚在。 However, last week, the inventory of sample steel mills was 4.695 million tons, which was only 48,000 tons higher than the lowest in the year . Intermediaries face the double kneading of high cost and low demand. Short-term steel prices may be weakly shaken, and there is little room for drop. Hong Kong Recycling Electronics


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